Telcos Will Face Market Uncertainty as They Progress Toward 2030

R. Muru

Summary Bullets:

• Advancements in technology place telcos in good footing to innovate, as majority of telcos re-engineer operationally, capitalize on their core network strengths, and rationalize portfolio.

• Future telco success will be hampered by the global economic climate (particularly inflation), rising energy costs, increased regulatory pressures, and increased direct and indirect (cloud providers) competition.

Telcos growth ambitions (through a transitioned operationally agile innovative business) will experience several external threats
As 2030 approaches, there is much discussion within the telecommunications industry surrounding how telcos will evolve. Several influencing factors include the maturity of digitalization in consumer and enterprise settings, which potentially could be further accelerated by artificial intelligence (AI), including generative AI. In addition, maturity of cloud and edge computing will continue to spur innovation as telcos further identify industry use cases. However, it will not be clear sailing for telcos.

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ASEAN Enterprise 5G Q2 2023 Round-Up: Leaders Focus on Key Use Cases While Challengers Start to Make a Move

A. Amir

Summary Bullets:

• AIS and Singtel continued their momentum with various initiatives to extend their enterprise 5G leadership in their respective markets. They are also starting to focus on high-growth verticals and use cases.

• A few telcos in the region are starting to make their moves to close the gap with the leaders, but most other providers are still taking conservative approaches in their initiatives and investments in enterprise 5G.

The enterprise 5G developments in ASEAN started slow in 2023 with only a number of initiatives in the first quarter, mainly from leading players like Singtel in Singapore and AIS in Thailand (for more, please see: ASEAN Enterprise 5G Q1 2023 Round-Up: Slow Start to the Year for Most ASEAN Telcos While AIS and Singtel Extended Their Leads, April 17, 2023). In the last quarter (Q2 2023), while AIS and Singtel continued their momentum to lead the enterprise 5G markets in respective countries, other telcos such as M1 (Singapore) and Maxis (Malaysia) made their moves through industry collaborations and commercialization of vertical use cases.

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Parent and Child: Optus Should Seek Deeper Collaboration with Parent Singtel to Boost Enterprise 5G Ambitions

M. Rogers

Summary Bullets:

• Both Optus and Singtel have invested heavily in 5G with an eye toward the enterprise market, but Singtel has surpassed Optus in terms of deeper partnerships and solution innovation.

• Optus and Singtel should focus on deeper collaboration on enterprise 5G to keep pace with innovations in the Australian market, using solutions and intellectual property (IP) developed by the parent in Singapore.

Australia’s number two telco Optus is fully owned by parent Singtel, one of Asia’s leading carriers in terms of network carriage as well as mobile network innovations. Both Optus and Singtel have been investing in 5G from the outset of when the technology became commercially available, and both have done well in rapidly expanding 5G coverage in their respective markets. Both have also switched on 5G standalone services in their commercial network, which enables more advanced capabilities like network slicing and edge compute. However, in terms of commercial development of 5G solutions and services, Singtel has far outpaced its Australian child company. Since the beginning of 2022, Singtel has wracked up a laundry list of 5G service innovations, trials, and launches.

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US IoT MVNO Market Continues to Evolve Through M&A

Kathryn Weldon – Research Director, Business Network and IT Services – Americas

Summary Bullets:

• Leading US IoT MVNOs are adapting to uncertain market conditions by being acquired, or acquiring, other companies or assets.

• IoT services remain a growth opportunity, but consolidation may be the only way to stay in the game.

Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) play an important role in expanding the reach of enterprises looking to connect devices across the world, primarily via cellular technologies. They also expand mobile or fixed operators’ footprints as a partner or sell directly to OEMs that use eSIMs/iSIMs for widespread, easy-to-use connectivity. Customers often use MVNOs for seamless connectivity in regions where a single carrier cannot provide service. MVNOs also may partner with satellite providers or have their own satellite connectivity services, ideal for markets where cellular service is spotty or unavailable such as maritime environments.

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Measuring Mobile User Activity During the Coronation and Beyond

R. Pritchard

Summary Bullets:

• Movers Index gives quarterly UK movement data collected by O2 Motion and by polling users to provide insight into behavior of the British public and businesses.

• More than 114,000 people visited central London (England) to be part of the Coronation parade, delivering a boost to business, matched by similar behavior nationwide.

Virgin Media O2 Business’s new Movers Index combines aggregated and anonymized UK movement data collected from its O2 Motion proposition (Virgin Media O2 Business O2 Motion may have been too much of a tongue twister), combined with polling of businesses and consumers ‘to provide quarterly trends and insights into the behavior’ of the British public and UK businesses.

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Generative AI Watch: Will Generative AI Drive Additional Demand for MEC Services (and 5G)?

J. Marcus

Summary Bullets:

• There are many potential use cases in the enterprise for generative AI, but many will be enabled by existing cloud solutions.

• Some use cases requiring real-time responses may emerge, generating modest demand for MEC and/or 5G services.

Expectations of demand for 5G and multi-access edge computing (MEC) services from the enterprise segment are established – in part – on enabling artificial intelligence (AI) to be used in real-time applications. AI requires considerable computing power, usually achieved in the cloud where its demanding requirements can be scaled, but where such resources are too distant (due to network latency) to be relied upon for use cases where seconds or milliseconds in application response time can determine success or failure. There are other reasons why MEC makes sense in this scenario, including both the security benefits and cost savings achieved by not sending massive amounts of data to and from the cloud. With the recent hype around generative AI and the potential impact on various professions, industries, and organizations, it is worth considering whether its uptake will mean even more demand for MEC and/or 5G.

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Dual 5G Networks – Still Far from Ideal but Way Better than SWN to Drive 5G Development in Malaysia

A. Amir

Summary Bullets:

• The details are still unclear, but the Malaysian government’s announcement on dual 5G networks is a positive move that can accelerate 5G developments in the country.

• Telcos should start collaborating and get more involved in the second 5G network for greater control of the infrastructure.

The Malaysian Communications and Digital Ministry recently announced that 5G rollout in the country will move to the second phase, in which Malaysia will have a dual network model upon reaching a population coverage of 80% of the first network. Having dual wholesale networks is still far from ideal compared to separate deployments by the telcos. However, it is a very positive move from the single wholesale network (SWN – for more on SWN, please see “Malaysia 5G Through SPV: One Step Forward and Two Steps Back,” March 8, 2021) as it will provide wider options for telcos/service providers and enable them to differentiate. It can also drive 5G development and accelerate innovations in creating new applications and use cases. All major local telcos (e.g., CelcomDigi, Maxis, and Telekom Malaysia) have already voiced their support for the dual networks while the largest player, CelcomDigi, has announced it will withdraw its equity participation with Digital Nasional Berhad (DNB – i.e., the current SWN provider).

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‘AIoT’ Mashup Works Better as a Concept Than a Buzzword

J. Marcus

Summary Bullets:

• Tech buzzwords work when they successfully communicate innovation in a catchy phrase.

• The emerging ‘AIoT’ construction is awkward, but it may help IoT providers communicate their value to knowledgeable tech audiences.

The concept of combining AI and IoT has been around for a few years. More recently, some tech market players have begun using the phraseology ‘AIoT’ to capture it. A good technology buzzword helps communicate instantly to tech and non-tech audiences what the innovation is all about, or at least provides a sizable hint. Both ‘artificial intelligence’ and ‘Internet of Things’ have been pretty good at this, but the mashup term AIoT (or ‘artificial intelligence of things’) is awkward, not self-explanatory, and ultimately, unhelpful.

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Low-Power WANs Still High on the Agenda for IoT Providers

J. Marcus

Summary Bullets:

• NB-IoT and LTE-M took several years to build market momentum due to the significant work required upfront by service providers and device makers.

• Despite that, low-power wide-area networks (LPWANs) remains a fundamental aspect of leading IoT service provider strategies.

LPWANs for IoT did not achieve the kind of growth that analysts, network operators, device makers, and even potential users (like utilities and local governments) predicted 10 years ago. Even five years ago, the IoT industry confidently expected the advent of narrowband IoT (NB-IoT) and LTE-M standards to kickstart deployments on a vast scale.

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Is the IoT Platform Market Consolidating or Falling Apart?

Kathryn Weldon – Research Director, Business Network and IT Services – Americas

Summary Bullets:

• 2022 saw not only market leaders exiting the IoT platform market but also other changes in the IoT vendor ecosystem, including Semtech’s acquisition of Sierra Wireless and Telit’s acquisition of Thales’ IoT module business.

• These changes may signal a much-needed consolidation of a crowded, fragmented market but also show the difficulty of monetizing IoT platforms as standalone offerings.

The IoT platform market is more-or-less divided into two sub-markets. The first sub-market is the connectivity and device management platform market that has long been led by Ericsson and Cisco, both of which sell them to CSPs that in turn position them as enablers of managed services to enterprises along with IoT connectivity. CSPs generally have a revenue share arrangement with these third-party platform vendors. Many mobile operators such as Vodafone (GDSP), Telefónica (KITE), and Verizon (ThingSpace) have also developed their own platforms, as this gives them more control over feature sets and product lifecycles with the ability to add on capabilities such as hyper-precise location, rapid on-boarding, and usage visialization and analytics. It also allows the operators to avoid the revenue share deals, which erode profits. Operators use these platforms to enhance the value of their IoT connectivity services with the ability to offer VAS for management and visibility. In some cases, they do not charge the enterprise separately for connectivity management but use it as a built-in capability with which to entice enterprises to deploy IoT services via an easier to use end-to-end solution. Several operators have their own platforms but may use third-party solutions for particular customers. There are also vendors such as Huawei, Software AG, Nokia, and Telit that offer IoT platforms directly to enterprises.

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