Partner or Do – a Telco Technology Dilemma

R. Pritchard

Summary Bullets:

• Vodafone has partnered Microsoft for generative AI (GenAI) and to scale its soon-to-be standalone IoT business with the goal of targeting over 300 million business and consumer customers.

• Telcos need to make difficult decisions over what they need to keep in-house as market differentiators and where they need to partner for best-of-breed solutions.

On January 16, 2024, Vodafone and Microsoft announced a 10-year strategic partnership “to bring generative AI, digital services, and the cloud to more than 300 million businesses and consumers” across Vodafone’s footprint in Europe and Africa. Vodafone is to invest $1.5 billion over that period in cloud and customer-focused AI services in conjunction with Microsoft, with Microsoft returning the favor by using Vodafone’s fixed and mobile connectivity services. Microsoft also intends to invest in Vodafone’s managed IoT connectivity platform as it becomes a standalone business by April 2024 (for more details, please see: Vodafone’s Microsoft AI and IoT Partnership is Bold but Raises Vendor-Neutrality Questions, January 16, 2024).

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UK Full-Fiber and 5G Rollout Going Well

R. Pritchard

Summary Bullets:

• Ofcom’s analysis shows substantial progress in the nationwide availability of superfast fixed broadband and 5G – crucial business enablers in the SME segment.

• Beyond faster connectivity for everyday office, admin, and communications, a growing range of case-specific solutions are being enabled to improve efficiency.

UK regulator Ofcom has updated its ‘Connected Nations’ report with 2023 availability figures for broadband and mobile services in the UK, including the rollout of fixed full-fiber and 5G mobile networks. With an estimated GBP7.9 billion invested in UK telecoms infrastructure in 2022 (GBP5.6 billion fixed, GBP1.8 billion mobile, GBP600 million ‘other’), full-fiber broadband is now available at 57% of UK residential premises (2022: 42%), and gigabit-capable broadband coverage levels now exceed 78% of UK premises (70% in 2022).

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eSIMs Should Fuel Growth in Cellular IoT for the Enterprise

J. Marcus

Summary Bullets:

• eSIMs first emerged in 2016, with strong potential for adoption in both consumer applications and industrial IoT.

• A new standard was published earlier in 2023, which will make using eSIMs for IoT easier for device makers and enterprise users, likely prompting growth in cellular IoT market opportunities.

SIM cards have long been a tool for mobile operator control of user devices. Dedicated to and often issued by an operator, once inserted in a device, there is a good chance the device would remain subscribed to the operator’s service as long as it was being used. ‘Control’ may be too strong of a word, but plastic SIMs certainly helped maintain a high level of customer ‘stickiness.’ Swapping out SIM cards – which provide user identification and authentication for network access – is a slow and clunky process whether there is one device or 10,000 devices involved.

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Vodafone Exits Spain – Scale or Fail in Europe?

R. Pritchard

Summary Bullets:

• Vodafone Spain, with 2022 revenues down 6.5% year-on-year to EUR3.9 billion, is to be sold to Zegona for up to EUR5 billion.

• Disposal is symptomatic of ‘scale or fail’ among established operators where cashflow and profits are squeezed, but substantial investment in fiber and 5G is required.

Vodafone has agreed to sell its Spanish business for up to EUR5 billion (at least EUR4.1 billion in cash and up to EUR900 million in redeemable preference shares) to Zegona Communications, a company that looks to acquire telecoms and assets and turn them around commercially. The deal is expected to close in H1 2024.

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Telecom Wholesale: Strategic Cloud Options for Consideration

R. Muru

Summary Bullets:

• Incumbent wholesalers should develop a robust cloud architecture framework to deliver future wholesale services, utilizing carriers’ unique capabilities in owning the network.

• Incumbent wholesalers must develop an underlying strategy for cloud that is interlinked across the different business units – promotes greater agility to operate effectively in future ecosystems.

Focus on Agility, Simplicity, and Automation in the Context of Cloud
GlobalData’s discussions during the 2022-2023 period with leading wholesale providers continue to highlight agility, simplicity, and automation as being key in the development of future products and services. Wholesale customers continue to demand the flexibility and agility to scale up/down their capacity, order their services online, pick and choose the required services, and have access to on-demand/pay-as-you-go billing models. Wholesale providers continue to become platform-centric with open application programming interfaces (APIs) and greater automation – artificial intelligence (AI) will play a key role here in the future.

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Will Network Slicing be the Savior for 5G in the Enterprise?

J. Marcus

Summary Bullets:

• The enterprise is where 5G was meant to shine, but the long and evolutionary rollout approach by network operators has limited the impact.

• Some of the use cases originally targeted by 5G have been deployed using 4G or non-standalone (NSA) 5G from public or private networks, but the advanced features of standalone (SA) 5G such as network slicing could finally help realize the industry’s claims now that availability is starting to appear.

So much verbiage has been expended by the telecom industry (including analysts like me) regarding the potential for 5G to enterprise organizations and to the network service providers themselves. After five years or so, the hype has died down considerably as the impact has yet to materialize at the expected scale. For the consumer market, serious questions remain around the potential for 5G – even for SA 5G – when (once it’s widely available) the full palette of features enabled by the 5G core network and requisite radio spectrum will be realized. Beyond mobile gaming, the conversation tends to stop after connected car-related advances.

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Ericsson Doubles Down on the Enterprise Segment by Leveraging Acquisitions

R. Bhattacharyya

Summary Bullets:

• With the Vonage acquisition, Ericsson acquired a CPaaS with which it can build a global platform that exposes and packages 5G network capabilities as APIs that can be used to add functionality to enterprise applications.

• The Cradlepoint acquisition has provided Ericsson with a more robust device portfolio to support private networks.

After having built a strong heritage of providing solutions and infrastructure for the telecom service provider community, Ericsson is expanding its vision by investing heavily to build out its enterprise business. On September 6, 2023, Ericsson gathered North American analysts in Boston, Massachusetts for a deep dive into its enterprise strategy, noting the contributions of its recent acquisitions. The company is combining its core Ericsson 5G solutions with capabilities from Vonage and Cradlepoint to build a broader portfolio.

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Private 5G Market Continues to Attract New Entrants, Particularly Telcos 

J. Marcus

Summary Bullets:

• The mercurial market sentiment around private 5G may be rebounding again in a more positive direction, as a number of new service launches and partnerships are announced in July and August 2023.

• Telcos are taking the lead in new service offerings (generally based on solutions from familiar infrastructure partners), while integrators, platform vendors, and market specialists forge new market alliances.

For suppliers of network gear and services as well as the applications they support, the private wireless/cellular/mobile networks market has been seen variously since 2020 as a bright spot, a conundrum, or a concern. Some of the same market players have been extremely bullish and cautious within a short space of time. Whenever there appears to be a chorus of disappointment, it isn’t long before key players or new entrants (or analysts) are quoted saying the market appears to finally be picking up.

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IT Service Providers Announce Alliances, Acquisitions, Labs, and Services to Fortify IoT and Adjacent Digital Transformation Initiatives

Kathryn Weldon – Research Director, Business Network and IT Services – Americas

Summary Bullets:

• In 2023, the IoT market has faced some headwinds. While cellular connections grew in the low double digits year-on-year for industrial use cases, many operators and vendors are seeing only moderate revenue growth. Several key IoT platform providers sold off or discontinued offerings.

• IT service providers, however, continue to play a critical role in successful IoT deployments that are often part of larger digital transformation deals.

Regardless of the difficulties in monetizing some segments of IoT, key vendors, operators, and IT service providers continue launching new services, striking new alliances, and making significant acquisitions to improve their capabilities. The following announcements were made in 2023 by leading IT service providers that are active in the IoT market.

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Telcos Will Face Market Uncertainty as They Progress Toward 2030

R. Muru

Summary Bullets:

• Advancements in technology place telcos in good footing to innovate, as majority of telcos re-engineer operationally, capitalize on their core network strengths, and rationalize portfolio.

• Future telco success will be hampered by the global economic climate (particularly inflation), rising energy costs, increased regulatory pressures, and increased direct and indirect (cloud providers) competition.

Telcos growth ambitions (through a transitioned operationally agile innovative business) will experience several external threats
As 2030 approaches, there is much discussion within the telecommunications industry surrounding how telcos will evolve. Several influencing factors include the maturity of digitalization in consumer and enterprise settings, which potentially could be further accelerated by artificial intelligence (AI), including generative AI. In addition, maturity of cloud and edge computing will continue to spur innovation as telcos further identify industry use cases. However, it will not be clear sailing for telcos.

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